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Polls in the state of Florida indicate a competitive contest to pass Amendment 4, a ballot measure that could enshrine abortion into the state constitution, as early voting starts.
The text of the proposed measure would establish that “no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.” The most recent survey from the University of North Florida shows that the 60% supermajority required to pass the measure has been reached among likely voters as 32% say they oppose the measure and 8% are undecided.
“Since campaigning has picked up against the amendment, support for abortion protection has dropped from 69% of likely voters back in July,” University of North Florida political science professor Michael Binder said in a statement. “Now, just barely reaching the 60% it needs to pass, it looks like the fate of abortion in Florida will come down to turnout on election day.”
Those opposed to Amendment 4 have cautioned that the measure allows for all abortion in Florida since “viability” and “health” would be left to the discretion of the “healthcare provider.”
Even as the survey from the University of North Florida showed that the supermajority threshold has been reached, another survey from Siena College and The New York Times indicated that Amendment 4 has some 46% of likely voters in support and 38% of likely voters opposed.
The surveys occurred in the weeks after former President Donald Trump officially revealed that he would cast his ballot against Amendment 4, a move which came shortly after comments that seemed to indicate he would instead cast a ballot in favor of the measure.
Trump has been criticized by some conservatives this year for his remarks asking states to make their own laws on abortion and his opposition to federal policies that would protect preborn babies. His stances have been enshrined into the platform of the Republican Party.
The most recent survey results were also published after Florida Republican Secretary of State Cord Byrd remarked in a letter to Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis that the agency has received a number of complaints about paid petitioners with Floridians Protecting Freedom, the sponsor of the initiative petition which led to the creation of Amendment 4, allegedly signing petitions on behalf of deceased individuals, as well as forging or misrepresenting signatures.
Republican lawmakers from Florida have meanwhile voiced their opposition to Amendment 4. Many of the lawmakers at first hesitated to make statements against the measure as many candidates increasingly believe that taking stances against abortion would be politically costly.