Many Americans would be surprised to learn that the Deep Red states of Louisiana and Kentucky currently have Democrat Governors.
Of course, both states were Democrat strongholds after Reconstruction, but the Democrat Governors in these states are not your grandfather’s Democrats.
Sure, they pretend to be moderate on some issues, but there isn’t much distance between them and Joe Biden. On some issues, these Democrat Governors come in to the left of the President.
Biden didn’t break 40 percent in either Louisiana or Kentucky in the 2020 election and with both states trending even deeper red in state legislative races, Republicans are feeling confident about their chances to take back both governorships in 2023.
The Democrat Governors Association is making the defense of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear a top priority, as he is the only incumbent Democrat Governor up this year.
Republican hopefuls are lining up and Trump has already endorsed current Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron in his bid for the nomination.
Kentucky is a weird state, politically speaking. About a decade ago, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in terms of party registration by nearly 4 to 1 and they also still controlled the governorship as well as the state House of Representatives.
But now Republicans hold supermajorities in both houses of the Kentucky Legislature and have pulled even with Democrats on the number of registered voters, statewide.
All indicators would suggest that Kentucky should be a slam dunk for Republicans, but then again they shockingly lost the governorship to Beshear back in 2019. And after the “Red Wave” failed to materialize, questions linger if Republicans can actually find their mojo to knock off a sitting Democrat Governor.
Perhaps their best opportunity for a pickup is Louisiana where Democrat Governor John Bel Edwards is term-limited.
You can’t beat someone with no one, so the first thing Republicans have to do is nominate candidates who are not only principled, but can actually run a successful campaign.
Polling from last March show a generic Republican beating a generic Democrat by 17 points in the Louisiana Governor’s race. Republicans have a stronger bench than Democrats in the state. Attorney General Jeff Landry is expected to be the Republican nominee. He’s already won statewide elections twice for that office, giving him a stronger starting point than any of the potential Democrat candidates.
It’s quite possible that national Democrats may just see the writing on the wall for Louisiana and focus their attention on saving Beshear in Kentucky.
Additionally, both houses of the Virginia General Assembly are up for election this year on new maps after court challenges forced the Commonwealth to hold their 2021 elections on the old legislative maps.
Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House of Delegates after voters rebuked Virginia Democrats for their overreaching on education, guns, abortion and a myriad of other liberal priorities.
Three years ago, Virginia was all but given up on by Republicans after Democrats took complete control of the state government in the 2019 election cycle. But after Glenn Youngkin defeated Terry McAuliffe and Republicans won back the House in 2021, perhaps the predictions of Virginia’s demise were premature.
Republicans taking complete control of Virginia would send shockwaves around the nation heading into the 2024 presidential cycle.
After 2022, what happens in 2023 is anyone’s guess. Political commentators of every stripe have their own theories as to why Democrats managed to break the trend of losing seats in a midterm election with their party holding the White House.
But the fact remains is that you can’t beat someone with no one, so the first thing Republicans have to do is nominate candidates who are not only principled, but can actually run a successful campaign.